08-11-2023, 07:19 AM | #7987 |
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So other than a couple individual stocks I own for my own risk taking, I think my optimal blend is
15% MGK 45% VOO 40% VYM I also hold cash in VFMXX which is earning ~5.25% You can adjust these based on your risk taking but I feel perform very well for their focus and have low expense so you keep more of what you earn. I have been hesitant to share my strategy simply because I don’t want people complaining but I’ve had no problem beating the SP500 average. |
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08-11-2023, 07:26 AM | #7988 |
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Other thing I will add is you can go crazy trying to keep things in balance, so once you set things, let them go for at least a year so you avoid higher taxes, then re balance if you wish. You will find you will keep moving MGK mostly into VYM to shore things up.
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08-11-2023, 08:55 AM | #7989 |
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Given the increase in rates, very real credit tightening and the earnings recession, aren't you taking a lot of risk holding high yield right now? Assuming you're using VMY primarily for wealth preservation, and are subject to taxes on that, something like VTEB might be good. Decent return (2.78% ytd), virtually no risk of default, and tax free.
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08-11-2023, 09:53 AM | #7990 | |
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09-06-2023, 07:12 AM | #7992 |
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09-06-2023, 08:12 AM | #7994 |
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09-06-2023, 08:26 AM | #7996 |
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Yes, it's an amazing shape... the only thing holding this house of cards together is a consumer who appears to be willing to go into debt at all costs to continue spending lol.
CPI is roaring back, jobs numbers that are revised by 50% after a month, auto repos are roaring up and household debt is at an all time high... This only goes two ways... spending slows and we slip into full blown recession... or the govt continues to paper over the problem when the money printer is turned back on by the end of the year full blast... resulting in well even further inflation. Our current scenario is absolutely decimating people at the middle income and below.
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09-06-2023, 08:31 AM | #7997 | |
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The 'consumer' as you put it are all grandfathered in low interest rates for the most part and are immune to what's happening. Just stop with this madness okay? |
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09-06-2023, 08:37 AM | #7998 | |
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Are you saying we didn't just have a job revision? https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/01/jobs...gust-2023.html Are you also saying wages stabilizing are a good thing lol? I guess if you are a business owner then yea. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/10/cpi-...july-2023.html Inflation is still at over 3% which is well above the fed target... but again, there is already talk about revising that to a standard rate lol as opposed to 2%. Prices are up dramatically over 3 years and wage growth didn't keep up...
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09-06-2023, 08:47 AM | #7999 | |
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Shelter is 1/3rd 'core' CPI and is just now being accounted for since it's a lagging number. 3% inflation is fine and the Fed is fine with that. My guess is rates are cut beginning in March next year |
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09-06-2023, 08:48 AM | #8000 | |
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09-06-2023, 08:51 AM | #8001 |
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I think people have been deluded to think after a crisis of forced government lockdown there is no recession. Shit is been good so far so why won't it continue. Many people don't own much nowadays, credit is a means to survival. I mean its basic history, this economy will crumble, all the signs are there. The BS metrics of the economy, like EBITA in stocks, are blinding your eyes.
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09-06-2023, 08:54 AM | #8002 |
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this is some sort of fake news being spread to make people feel good-
I only know of 2 sectors where this happened. The lower wage earner which doesn't drive the economy - i.e. starbucks workers. And folks that were already well off and were able to switch jobs lol. No one else got a raise, where is this coming from lol? Mostly everyone else got pummeled by inflation.
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09-06-2023, 08:58 AM | #8003 | |
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it takes quite a deal of "bandwidth" to truly follow currency through all its valuations in economics. Shit I can't even half way follow the USD its manipulation. |
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09-06-2023, 08:59 AM | #8004 | |
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If you are ready for your rate cut... you need be ready for further inflation... there is 0 talk of a pivot at this time.
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09-06-2023, 09:04 AM | #8005 | |
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There is 0 talk of a pivot until there is that talk. I want you to comment on how shelter has been lagging and is now going to be going down exponentially. You missed that in your Core CPI forecast. And stop with energy also which is always volatile |
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09-06-2023, 09:19 AM | #8008 | |
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Nothing related to housing is coming down nothing... there is nothing to back that up... a massive run up in prices with a 2-3% correction fixes nothing... rents are at an all time high.
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