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We have a multi-zone'd minisplit in our ~1800 sq. ft. home that has a boiler for heat and no ducts. Dining room has a larger unit, then each bedroom upstairs (3), and it does a good job. The only time it struggles is when the temperatures get 85+ with high humidity.
We got a Daikan system and I'm impressed with the quietness and efficiency. Our bills in June+July went up about $30/mo. over usual. We can vary the system based on need in each room, so that helps the efficiency.
We also like that the compressor outside is virtually silent - even when it's running at full tilt. As compared to my neighbor's brand new Carrier unit, which we can hear run at all times.
The only downside, apart from the wall mounted unit "look" if it bothers you, is that Daikan does not have a good central/internet based management portal for the units - they all need to be controlled individually.
TL;DR: If you want to be able to control each room individually, I think mini-splits are the way to go. Otherwise, if you already have duct work for a furnace, it may just be simpler to go the route of a standard system.
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