Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis
Who knows?
The technologies will intersect, they always do and always will.
Better battery technology, public and private investment, and training more utility workers (engineers, linemen, the whole lot), among many other factors, will be part of the complex solution.
When and how is anyone's guess. 30 years is one estimate. No one knows if that guess is too pessimistic, or too optimistic.
|
Yes, I agree with all of that.
Problem is people have decided to push the demand side before any of the rest of it is worked out. We still don't have a workable plan. Decision makers are making a "guess" knowing full well they don't have a plan. Crisis solutions usually suck.
"Build the EV's, somebody will figure the rest of it out". I'm one of those "somebody's", and I'm saying "whoa, slow down, lets plan this out so we don't break the system along the way". All I seem to hear to that is something along the line of : "you'll figure it out when we break it because then you'll be more motivated". Our system isn't like this because of lack of motivation. We make money selling power, we are already motivated to sell more.
Get ready for brownouts, curtailment, and rolling black outs. Get ready to be told you can't air condition your home when it's really hot, or heat them when it's really cold. Get ready to be told you can't charge your car this day/week/month because of the weather.
Keep in mind this isn't the only variable being manipulated that puts pressure on the system. Multiple Large metro areas are actively pushing for the abandonment of natural gas in homes, no new hookups and active rebates to switch over existing homes to electric. All those BTU's will be replaced by watts from the grid. Nobody knows where those extra watts will come from, but who cares, right? Those lazy grid guys will figure that out after we kill off the gas company.
We can't change that fast. It takes a decade to take a HS graduate and turn them into a *proficient lineman or engineer, and not everyone is cut out for that work, trust me. These jobs pay 6 figures already and we still can't find enough people to do the work. I can't imagine trying to ramp up the workforce logarithmically.
There is a solution to all of this, but no one wants to consider it : Keep carbon in the grid a lot longer than is currently planned.