BMW: All models to be electric in a decade

[Coolhydro]

http://m.nasdaq.com/article/bmw-all-...20150629-00597

(RTTNews.com) - German luxury car giant Bayerische Motoren Werke AG or BMW Group (BAMXY, BAMXF, BMW.L) is looking to go all-electric over the next 10 years due to the upcoming stricter carbon emission laws. Virtually every BMW model would be converted to electric drivetrains, including range-extending engines and plug-in hybrids.

The transition will see even the company's top-selling 3 Series sport sedans turned into plug-in hybrids.

[CHCCubs]

I doubt they will go electric only for all models, but having electric versions of each of their models (along with gas, diesel, and hybrids) seems more plausible.

[Billfitz]

Note that it says 'hybrids'. Making that move is logical, as hybrids are the most efficient method of propulsion. It's been the standard with locomotives since the 1950s, with ships since the 1980s, and there is no loss of performance. i8 isn't an anomaly, it's just the first step.

[rolltidef32]

I don't mind hybrid tech. The i8 performs very well, so there is little to complain about. Sure, the sound of a combustion engine is lower or different, but that's the times. a 2006 whatever didn't sound like a 1968 whatever either.

With gas prices taking a nosedive here in the U.S. due to high production, many Americans will want to keep petrol only. I don't know if prices will still be low in 10 years, but I'll enjoy petrol while I still can.

A plug in hybrid isn't a bad idea though.

[RoundelM3]

First of all, you can't rely on the accuracy of something posted on the internet. Secondly, yes, locomotives have diesel engines that turn generators to power electric motors - there are no batteries involved at all, so the notion that locomotives are "hybrids" is not entirely accurate. They are extremely heavy vehicles, if you can call them that, and the electric motors provide the instant torque needed to move the locomotive itself and the other rail cars it has to pull.

The problem with pure hybrids is the weight of the batteries, not to mention the cost of replacement batteries when the OEMs are at end-of-life. Then there's the disposal issue, since this type of battery contains heavy metals that are toxic and not entirely recyclable. Note that BMW has constructed the i3 and i8 of mostly carbon-fiber materials to offset that weight. While they've made huge improvements in the manufacturing process to bring costs of producing CF components down, there's a reason that the i3 and especially the i8 are more costly than comparable "normal" vehicles. I personally find it hard to believe that in 10 years, all of BMW's models will be all carbon-fiber with hybrid powertrains and still affordable.

As far as plug-in hybrids, is our aging electric grid infrastructure ready to provide the power needed when everyone arrives home after work and plugs in their vehicle to recharge? We already have brown-outs in certain urban areas in hot weather, and where will urban-dwellers without garages plug in? There's a whole lot of infrastructure that doesn't yet exist that's not mentioned in this grandiose plan to move away from petroleum fuels and internal combustion, not to mention that the electricity is going to have to be generated somehow. There's just not enough wind- and solar-powered power plants to do that, so we'll still have conventional plants powered by coal, natural gas, and nuclear fission.

The conversion envisoned by this article leaves out a lot of background details that are essential for its success. My guess is that maintaining our aging road and bridge infrastructure is going to get the bulk of the funds available, and don't think Big Oil is going to give up without a huge fight.

[Billfitz]

Originally Posted by rolltidef32

With gas prices taking a nosedive here in the U.S. due to high production, many Americans will want to keep petrol only.

They might want to, but ultimately it will be the Chinese and Indian marketplaces that will set the tone. Both are net oil importers, and the Chinese are struggling with air pollution. Besides, Americans will buy hybrids if the price is no higher, and it's economy of scale which will make that the case. I never seriously considered a hybrid because I knew I'd not drive enough for the fuel savings to ever compensate for the price difference, even at $4 a gallon. If I could have gone hybrid at no higher a cost and with no loss of performance I would have, if only to hedge against the $6 gas I can expect to see at some point during the life of the car.

[rolltidef32]

Originally Posted by roundel335

First of all, you can't rely on the accuracy of something posted on the internet. Secondly, yes, locomotives have diesel engines that turn generators to power electric motors - there are no batteries involved at all, so the notion that locomotives are "hybrids" is not entirely accurate. They are extremely heavy vehicles, if you can call them that, and the electric motors provide the instant torque needed to move the locomotive itself and the other rail cars it has to pull.

The problem with pure hybrids is the weight of the batteries, not to mention the cost of replacement batteries when the OEMs are at end-of-life. Then there's the disposal issue, since this type of battery contains heavy metals that are toxic and not entirely recyclable. Note that BMW has constructed the i3 and i8 of mostly carbon-fiber materials to offset that weight. While they've made huge improvements in the manufacturing process to bring costs of producing CF components down, there's a reason that the i3 and especially the i8 are more costly than comparable "normal" vehicles. I personally find it hard to believe that in 10 years, all of BMW's models will be all carbon-fiber with hybrid powertrains and still affordable.

As far as plug-in hybrids, is our aging electric grid infrastructure ready to provide the power needed when everyone arrives home after work and plugs in their vehicle to recharge? We already have brown-outs in certain urban areas in hot weather, and where will urban-dwellers without garages plug in? There's a whole lot of infrastructure that doesn't yet exist that's not mentioned in this grandiose plan to move away from petroleum fuels and internal combustion, not to mention that the electricity is going to have to be generated somehow. There's just not enough wind- and solar-powered power plants to do that, so we'll still have conventional plants powered by coal, natural gas, and nuclear fission.

The conversion envisoned by this article leaves out a lot of background details that are essential for its success. My guess is that maintaining our aging road and bridge infrastructure is going to get the bulk of the funds available, and don't think Big Oil is going to give up without a huge fight.

Great post you've made here about the various infrastructure challenges that we face in any attempt to move past petrol.

I'd like to see many garages retro fit outlets in many urban cities, but is that realistic? I just can't see landlords in NYC and Chicago especially going for that unless you're talking new construction. Ironically, it's the urban dwellers of Chi, NYC, and Boston who'd most like to have a plug in option. Personally, I'd just use public transit, but that's another story.

Don't think Petrol is going anywhere within the next 10 years. However, more hybrids can help decrease demand. We're maybe 30 years away from mostly electric cars.

[Polo08816]

Originally Posted by roundel335

First of all, you can't rely on the accuracy of something posted on the internet. Secondly, yes, locomotives have diesel engines that turn generators to power electric motors - there are no batteries involved at all, so the notion that locomotives are "hybrids" is not entirely accurate. They are extremely heavy vehicles, if you can call them that, and the electric motors provide the instant torque needed to move the locomotive itself and the other rail cars it has to pull.

The problem with pure hybrids is the weight of the batteries, not to mention the cost of replacement batteries when the OEMs are at end-of-life. Then there's the disposal issue, since this type of battery contains heavy metals that are toxic and not entirely recyclable. Note that BMW has constructed the i3 and i8 of mostly carbon-fiber materials to offset that weight. While they've made huge improvements in the manufacturing process to bring costs of producing CF components down, there's a reason that the i3 and especially the i8 are more costly than comparable "normal" vehicles. I personally find it hard to believe that in 10 years, all of BMW's models will be all carbon-fiber with hybrid powertrains and still affordable.

As far as plug-in hybrids, is our aging electric grid infrastructure ready to provide the power needed when everyone arrives home after work and plugs in their vehicle to recharge? We already have brown-outs in certain urban areas in hot weather, and where will urban-dwellers without garages plug in? There's a whole lot of infrastructure that doesn't yet exist that's not mentioned in this grandiose plan to move away from petroleum fuels and internal combustion, not to mention that the electricity is going to have to be generated somehow. There's just not enough wind- and solar-powered power plants to do that, so we'll still have conventional plants powered by coal, natural gas, and nuclear fission.

The conversion envisoned by this article leaves out a lot of background details that are essential for its success. My guess is that maintaining our aging road and bridge infrastructure is going to get the bulk of the funds available, and don't think Big Oil is going to give up without a huge fight.

This is why my GF is looking to get a BMW X3 3.5 to replace her 2005 Honda Civic Hybrid (manual). Her hybrid battery is failing and it is causing the CEL to light up constantly. In the state of MD, a CEL is an automatic fail for an emissions test.

Value of car in GOOD working condition: $2000-3500
Dealer quote to replace hybrid battery: $4500

The repair on a hybrid system wipes out the fuel savings. The Civic only has 92,000 miles.

If you own a car for 6+ years, you should be cognizant of the repair costs associated with complex powertrains.

[RM7]

Originally Posted by roundel335

As far as plug-in hybrids, is our aging electric grid infrastructure ready to provide the power needed when everyone arrives home after work and plugs in their vehicle to recharge? We already have brown-outs in certain urban areas in hot weather, and where will urban-dwellers without garages plug in? There's a whole lot of infrastructure that doesn't yet exist that's not mentioned in this grandiose plan to move away from petroleum fuels and internal combustion, not to mention that the electricity is going to have to be generated somehow. There's just not enough wind- and solar-powered power plants to do that, so we'll still have conventional plants powered by coal, natural gas, and nuclear fission.

Well, compared to hydrogen, we have infinitely more infrastructure in place for electric. We may not be able to equip every family with an electric vehicle and be able to meet the electricity demand right now, but things are slowly happening in this realm and it is realistic to make sequential upgrades, rather than having to boat, truck, extract and store in multiple places-hydrogen. It's still more efficient to burn carbon based fuel in a modern gas turbine that gets better than 60% efficiency and then "beam it out" to customers over transmission lines, than burn that fuel in a combustion engine and the end-user.

Hybrids are especially in the near future for sports cars because you can recapture braking energy at the turns and use it to slingshot on the next straight away. This is absolutely huge and right now the most exotic manufacturers are realizing it. This is what the NSX is about IMO, bringing that technology down several pricepoints.

[....,,,,..,,..]

Originally Posted by rolltidef32

Great post you've made here about the various infrastructure challenges that we face in any attempt to move past petrol.

I'd like to see many garages retro fit outlets in many urban cities, but is that realistic? I just can't see landlords in NYC and Chicago especially going for that unless you're talking new construction. Ironically, it's the urban dwellers of Chi, NYC, and Boston who'd most like to have a plug in option. Personally, I'd just use public transit, but that's another story.

Don't think Petrol is going anywhere within the next 10 years. However, more hybrids can help decrease demand. We're maybe 30 years away from mostly electric cars.

This has always been one of my main points or challenges to be over come.

The need to dramatically increase garage forecourts to cater for new 'electric' customers, charging bays, coffee shop or something for people to do.

The other key part to Electic and Hybrids, is the battery technology and its current dependency on certain metals such as lithium.

Only a few places have decent reserves of lithium, South America, China and Africa (which is effectively China).

Apparently the main problem is speed of getting a decent amount in the first place and reclaiming from used batteries.

While we just have a small number of hybrids and electrics, it's not so much an issue. Now when the main selling models switch to hybrid or electric, then the market could get volatile.

Basically big engine car makers need to offset its big models with either all electric or very low emission hybrids for 2022.

[oceanview]

Originally Posted by Polo08816

Value of car in GOOD working condition: $2000-3500
Dealer quote to replace hybrid battery: $4500

The repair on a hybrid system wipes out the fuel savings. The Civic only has 92,000 miles.

If you own a car for 6+ years, you should be cognizant of the repair costs associated with complex powertrains.

Exactly what I tell all the Tesla/Fisker folks. They won't be able to sell the car anymore with an aged battery because either the capacity is down at like 50% or so, which results in low mile range until next recharge, or possible new car owners are afraid of upcoming battery replacement cost.
(I know Tesla offers lifetime warranty for their battery, but this is not covering loss of capacity because of aging battery. Finally they decide when they will exchange your battery)

Will see what the future energy source for electric cars will be.

[RoundelM3]

Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes

Well, compared to hydrogen, we have infinitely more infrastructure in place for electric. We may not be able to equip every family with an electric vehicle and be able to meet the electricity demand right now, but things are slowly happening in this realm and it is realistic to make sequential upgrades, rather than having to boat, truck, extract and store in multiple places-hydrogen. It's still more efficient to burn carbon based fuel in a modern gas turbine that gets better than 60% efficiency and then "beam it out" to customers over transmission lines, than burn that fuel in a combustion engine and the end-user.

Hybrids are especially in the near future for sports cars because you can recapture braking energy at the turns and use it to slingshot on the next straight away. This is absolutely huge and right now the most exotic manufacturers are realizing it. This is what the NSX is about IMO, bringing that technology down several pricepoints.

Hydrogen is a no-go from the start. Since it doesn't exist as a free element anywhere in the known universe, it has to be separated from other molecules like water, and that process requires more energy than the extracted hydrogen can produce. If by some chance they figure out a way to get pure hydrogen even on a 1-to-1 efficiency ratio, we still haven't gained much of anything.

The technology needed for KERS is primarily in the realm of multimillion-dollar racing vehicles, and it'll be awhile before that and a much improved battery technology enable prices to come down to that of hydrocarbon-fueled vehicles. Sure, some of our newest vehicles have this capability, but nowhere near where the racing world is in terms of efficiency and capacity.

We've got enough corn and sugar cane to produce ethanol and do what Brazil has done, but it's less efficient than petroleum fuels from a thermodynamic perspective, so we'd have to consume 30% more ethanol than gasoline (and even more compared to diesel) to go the same distance. And you can rest assured that Big Oil would buy up all the corn and cane crops to corner the market on ethanol, so it'd be no cheaper than gasoline is now.

The problem with all this future-think is that reality is left out of the picture. There are economic (read "profit") considerations as well as political. We envisioned building high-speed trains like Europe and Asia have done, but there was huge resistance from the landowners who didn't want it coming across their property because of perceived noise and ecologic issues. And, as I mentioned before, it's going to cost a lot of money, which is in short supply these days thanks to our never-ending conflict in the middle-east. All this is a moot point if we don't pay attention to maintaining our roads and bridges, which are deteriorating quickly, and that's likely to be where any appropriated public funds are going to go (since they're all "owned" by the Federal and State governments). Building up our power grid won't help if we don't develop a sufficient battery technology. Trying to drive more than 300 miles without having to spend hours recharging just isn't going to work, no matter what pie-in-the-sky microwave-tower power transmission-towers-along-the-highway scheme Tesla keeps dreaming of. And imagine the public's perception of the "radiation risk" of such a scheme. Remember when microwave ovens came out and people were afraid to eat the "radioactive" food?

It's all about the "true cost of ownership" supplemented by a capitalistic mindset and a low-common-denominator mentality. We're just not there yet. When I can buy a brand-new i8 for $40k of today's money, I'll be the first to jump on that bandwagon. But one of today's or even tomorrow's "conventional" hybrids? Not a chance.

[ft1330]

I'm starting to like electric. To see the Tesla P85D's real world performance is an eye-opener on the capabilities of electric sports cars. The instant torque is what really draws me to this.

[spuntyb]

Originally Posted by roundel335

First of all, you can't rely on the accuracy of something posted on the internet. Secondly, yes, locomotives have diesel engines that turn generators to power electric motors - there are no batteries involved at all, so the notion that locomotives are "hybrids" is not entirely accurate. They are extremely heavy vehicles, if you can call them that, and the electric motors provide the instant torque needed to move the locomotive itself and the other rail cars it has to pull.

The problem with pure hybrids is the weight of the batteries, not to mention the cost of replacement batteries when the OEMs are at end-of-life. Then there's the disposal issue, since this type of battery contains heavy metals that are toxic and not entirely recyclable. Note that BMW has constructed the i3 and i8 of mostly carbon-fiber materials to offset that weight. While they've made huge improvements in the manufacturing process to bring costs of producing CF components down, there's a reason that the i3 and especially the i8 are more costly than comparable "normal" vehicles. I personally find it hard to believe that in 10 years, all of BMW's models will be all carbon-fiber with hybrid powertrains and still affordable.

As far as plug-in hybrids, is our aging electric grid infrastructure ready to provide the power needed when everyone arrives home after work and plugs in their vehicle to recharge? We already have brown-outs in certain urban areas in hot weather, and where will urban-dwellers without garages plug in? There's a whole lot of infrastructure that doesn't yet exist that's not mentioned in this grandiose plan to move away from petroleum fuels and internal combustion, not to mention that the electricity is going to have to be generated somehow. There's just not enough wind- and solar-powered power plants to do that, so we'll still have conventional plants powered by coal, natural gas, and nuclear fission.

The conversion envisoned by this article leaves out a lot of background details that are essential for its success. My guess is that maintaining our aging road and bridge infrastructure is going to get the bulk of the funds available, and don't think Big Oil is going to give up without a huge fight.

You couldn't 3D print a home 10 years ago either. The idea that they will have affordable CF hybrid versions of all their models in 10 years is totally plausible.

[Polo08816]

Originally Posted by spuntyb

You couldn't 3D print a home 10 years ago either. The idea that they will have affordable CF hybrid versions of all their models in 10 years is totally plausible.

Affordable to buy ... or affordable to maintain/replace?

LOL. You can be the guinea pig. I'll jump on the bandwagon once someone else has figured out the ins and outs.

[spuntyb]

Originally Posted by Polo08816

Affordable to buy ... or affordable to maintain/replace?

I would assume both. 'Affordable' was used by the commenter I replied to though. Ask him/her.

[Billfitz]

Originally Posted by Polo08816

Affordable to buy ... or affordable to maintain/replace?

All that remains is to come up with batteries that last as long as the anticipated life of the car. I very much doubt that's an insurmountable task, especially considering the potential rewards for those who come up with them.

[drexplode]

Originally Posted by CHCCubs

I doubt they will go electric only for all models, but having electric versions of each of their models (along with gas, diesel, and hybrids) seems more plausible.

This... I work in fuel system development and can tell you that every OEM continues to examine every opportunity for ICE efficiency improvement even if it's 1-2% gain+. Also, they will not forget the performance market.

Look at Audi with their EA888 miller cycle engine (bz) for the new A4 - another knob turned to increase efficiency without sacrificing F2D; which is one of many OEMs.

My guess for 10yrs+ = electric + gas/diesel engine as new emissions legislation will count total number of particles vs. mass (today). Not sure what the US will require until new president is announced...

[S4NoMore]

Originally Posted by roundel335

The problem with pure hybrids is the weight of the batteries, not to mention the cost of replacement batteries when the OEMs are at end-of-life. Then there's the disposal issue, since this type of battery contains heavy metals that are toxic and not entirely recyclable.

Is there much evidence for the failure of those batteries? I get the feeling that people have a hard time moving past the shouts of early naysayers who pointed to this as a big problem with hybrid technology.

Ignoring the fact that battery warranties are usually 100k, or even 150k in California and other states, the rates of reported battery failures are very low for first gen models and an order of magnitude less for subsequent models (Toyota and Honda hybrids). These cars have been on roads for 15 years now too.

My parents picked up a pre-owned Prius and I looked around on the forums for others' experiences, and nothing really jumped out to refute the low failure rates I mentioned. In fact, it turns out that the batteries are serviceable and I read about one guy who repaired his for practically free - the issue was oxidation of contacts causing intermittent voltage.

I could see a new industry of battery repair growing in the near future, with service cost significantly lower than replacing the whole thing.

[Polo08816]

Originally Posted by S4NoMore

Is there much evidence for the failure of those batteries? I get the feeling that people have a hard time moving past the shouts of early naysayers who pointed to this as a big problem with hybrid technology.

Ignoring the fact that battery warranties are usually 100k, or even 150k in California and other states, the rates of reported battery failures are very low for first gen models and an order of magnitude less for subsequent models (Toyota and Honda hybrids). These cars have been on roads for 15 years now too.

My parents picked up a pre-owned Prius and I looked around on the forums for others' experiences, and nothing really jumped out to refute the low failure rates I mentioned. In fact, it turns out that the batteries are serviceable and I read about one guy who repaired his for practically free - the issue was oxidation of contacts causing intermittent voltage.

I could see a new industry of battery repair growing in the near future, with service cost significantly lower than replacing the whole thing.

Originally Posted by Polo08816

This is why my GF is looking to get a BMW X3 3.5 to replace her 2005 Honda Civic Hybrid (manual). Her hybrid battery is failing and it is causing the CEL to light up constantly. In the state of MD, a CEL is an automatic fail for an emissions test.

Value of car in GOOD working condition: $2000-3500
Dealer quote to replace hybrid battery: $4500

The repair on a hybrid system wipes out the fuel savings. The Civic only has 92,000 miles.

If you own a car for 6+ years, you should be cognizant of the repair costs associated with complex powertrains.

When you experience a hybrid battery failure, it'll take a lot of convincing to go back.

It failed at 9 years and 72,000 miles. That 10 year/100k warranty is only for a few select states.

[nicknaz]

Originally Posted by rolltidef32

The i8 performs very well, so there is little to complain about.

I dunno, it gets out performed by tesla on the all electric side on the streets, and traditional sports cars on the petrol side. I personally wouldn't want i8 and i3 as the template for the future BMW.

Going down in weight via smaller powertrains and advanced materials tech is more what I'd like to see happen

[F32Fleet]

This was reported in Roundel earlier this you late last year.