Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel
I should have made it clear that I meant that comment in the context you alluded to in your OP. That is, an autonomous rideshare fleet that can fully replace the need for personal vehicle ownership. That means I’ll need to be able to summon one 24/7/365 in more or less the time it takes me to grab my things and walk out the front door. That absolutely isn’t happening in 2019 and probably not 2029 either. 2039? Perhaps. I think 2049 is more likely.
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I'm being misquoted a bit. I offered no timeline in the OP. When asked, here's what I said in the 3rd post:
Good question. Given the timelines of the major manufacturers, I'd guess less than 10 years for autonomous vehicles. Once that happens, it will take over urban markets pretty quickly. Given the speed and safety improvements, areas of the city, beginning with the center and moving successively outward, will ban driver operated vehicles. I also see the introduction of autonomous long haul trucking. Lots of money to be saved.
I see a mix of autonomous fleets, autonomous individual owned, driver-driven electric, and legacy IC cars for quite a while. It will also depend on where you live - city, burbs, exurbs, or rural.
The low hanging fruit seems to be AV fleets in urban areas and long-haul trucking. Low and behold, a day or two after the OP, GM announced plans for a 2,500 AV urban fleet in 2019. I got lucky in my prediction but the economics aren't hard to figure -- Uber w/o drivers. If it works, I see this spreading to the close-in burbs pretty quickly - 2029 isn't unrealistic in congested urban areas. In the exurbs and rural areas it's likely going to take longer for a bunch of reasons. Primarily because it will take longer for the costs savings in both time and money to kick in -- there is less congestion, less density, and lower incomes. In addition, the US IC fleet is enormous and modern cars last a long time. The average car on the road is 11 years old. No one is going to ban IC cars for a long time but there will gradually be limitations on where non-AV cars can go. And if the effects of global warming increase, carbon taxes will increase the cost of IC relative to AV.
Another reason I see this moving more quickly than many is because GM, Ford, BMW, MB and the other big boys are involved. These guys know how to produce cars in high volumes, know how to work a supply chain, and have tons of manufacturing and logistical experience. I'd be much less optimistic if it were all start-ups.
And costs will come down quickly because of scale. No one really gives a damn about the performance of their ride share as long as its comfortable and clean. People will care more about infotainment and connectivity than performance. It will become commoditized.