Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh
So, we're going to spend trillions of dollars to make personal travel more expensive and less convenient because of behavioral problems and vehicle types.
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Uber and Lyft will only substitute AV cars for the current "IC cars w/drivers" if it makes them money, meaning both costs and prices fall. Same w/folks replacing one or all of their cars with an AV service. So if AV is more expensive for the consumer it's not going to happen.
Similarly with safety. If AV is less safe it will not be successful. Also, I think you might be applying the wrong standard to safety. If the standard is commercial air travel, then I'm with you - AV cars are decades away. But if the standard is significantly beating current car safety (accidents/death per mile), then AV will be coming much sooner. The GM announcement is sooner than I expected.
I'm also not sure why you think it would be less convenient. Certainly in an urban and close suburban environment, having an app-based program bring a car to your door in a couple of minutes and not having to park at you destination is pretty damn convenient. That's why Lyft and Uber are already valued in the billions. Also, well designed AV should make traffic move faster by reducing the accordion effect of stopping and starting that is a major cause of congestion. That's why I think own--driven cars will be slowly eliminated from city centers and cities. Once AV reaches critical mass, the own-driven cars will be really slowing things down. Finally, for most folks, the ability to do other things than drive while commuting/traveling is a big convenience - sleep, entertainment, work, whatever. My guess is only a small percentage of people really like to drive, especially on commutes.
I think increased driver training, stricter drunk driver laws and stricter texting laws are a bigger fantasy than AV. Like it not, society has been letting idiots drive cars forever. It's not like society doesn't know that drunk driving and texting kill people. Yet we've chosen not to strictly enforce the rules and not to provide rigorous driver training. Most of the gains in safety come from safer cars.
So yeah, interesting times.