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Google also has a "future" problem. They have more money than God and a huge future stream of income from online ads. So they need a project with extraordinary profit potential to meaningfully increase their profitability. They already do maps, big data, and AI. They also have started designing their own chips for their cloud services. So why not turn to a market that sold 17 million units last year?
Two observations on the AV profit front. First, this only works if AV drives consumer prices down. The plan is to drive down costs as fast or faster than prices and thereby maintain or increase profits. Win/Win. Can costs go down relative to IC cars? Well, battery costs are falling and that's considered a technology with a lot of room for improvement. So "fuel" costs per mile should fall. Certainly, semiconductors have demonstrated declining costs over time. The decline in moving parts and the number of parts may lower costs and repairs. To the extent it is safer, insurance costs decline. If AV are fleets, the fewer number of models should save costs. How much could Lyft or Uber lower prices if they didn't have to pay for a driver and could buy two or three models in bulk? What would happen to your costs if you could share a car with someone with a different schedule and the car could autonomously shuttle itself between the two of you?
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