Originally Posted by flybigjet
This really has a lot of complex issues that you could write a doctoral dissertation on.
A few overall things to consider:
1. Crew sizes (regardless) of size of jet are more or less a constant. The days of flight engineers is pretty much in the past except for the occasional freight hauler. TIME is what drives crew size. International long haul is usually 3 or 4 pilots, depending on duty day (i.e how far are you going today?). San Fran to Tokyo? Three pilots. Tokyo to Bangkok? Two pilots. San Fran to Singapore? Four pilots.
2. Domestic crew sizes are two pilots. Very little augmentation on the narrow body fleets, except for a few oddballs (like the Guam Island-Hopper). That's why you can have a crew "time-out" on your flight-- they might have flown two or three times already today, and the FAA has pretty absolute duty day limits.
3. Airlines are all in increasing in size and buying a ton of aircraft (go look at the order books for Boeing and Airbus). Some of those tails are for replacements (757 retirements v. 331Neo for example), but a lot of them are for new growth. You need pilots to fly them.
4. As a general rule in the Majors, it's "get hired at the very bottom (regardless of your experience), and slowly move up in seat, fleet and/or domicile". Basically, even if you're the lead in the Thunderbirds, you're going to start at the bottom. For Part 121 (passenger) operations, you can't fly after your 65th birthday-- which means if you get hired by a Major in your 20's, you'll have a much longer period of higher earnings than if you get hired in your 40's-- the time doesn't carry over from previous airlines.
5. EVERYTHING is done by seniority. EVERYTHING. You can be in a situation where you're a senior First Officer where you get weekends, holidays, birthdays, anniversaries off with first choice of prime vacation, OR you can be a super-junior Captain "on Reserve" (think of it like sitting Alert waiting for the phone to ring). You'll fly or be on Call (sometimes at home, sometimes at the airport) nights, weekends, holidays, etc. And vacation? You'd better enjoy February and October. Additionally, some guys love the wide body/long haul flying, others hate it (case in point-- I can hold 777 Captain as a junior Reserve, but I'd stab myself through the eyes with a fork-- I love being a fairly senior narrow body 737 Captain. I make a bit less money, but can have control over holidays, weekends, not flying all-nighters, etc)
6. Military pilots are drying up for a few reasons: There are a LOT fewer cockpits/aircraft in the military nowadays, so there are a lot fewer active-duty pilots. The pilot-training commitment is currently (I think?) 10 years AFTER you graduate from pilot training-- which means you're stuck for 11 years. The kicker is every single time you do something (change bases, planes, go to school, upgrade), you incur additional commitment-- sometimes they run concurrently, sometimes you get caught you have no choice but to extend past your 11 years-- it can get complicated and you can get stuck for 15 or more years-- at which point, you might as well stay to 20 and get the retirement.
7. Up until recently, the regionals paid NOTHING because they knew you were really getting paid in flight time. Get enough hours (Pilot in Command time and jet time, especially), and you earn your interview with the Majors-- which meant when the economy was booming, who wanted to live on food stamps, live in a crash pad, and fly for a shite company driving some suck RJ or prop job for 5-10-15 years when you could get six figures for breathing in any other industry almost right out of school? This is why the Regional pay has skyrocketed-- Frontier's offering $50,000 signing bonuses as of next month, and some of the Regional Captains are making more than I do as a major narrowbody Captain just for retention. The model there is broken and it'll be interesting to see what happens.
8. Hiring criteria at the Majors is being DRASTICALLY lowered. ~2300 hours total time. NO Pilot in Command requirement. NO jet requirement. No College degree requirement. Remember to even get a job as a copilot in commercial aviation, you need 1,500 hours and an Airline Transport Pilot certificate from the FAA. This is because the demand is far exceeding the supply. It's sort of insane.
9. This couples with a lot of FAA rules. In addition to not flying over age 65, you can't fly more than 100 hours a month or 1000 a year-- no matter what the airline would like you to do (and most buffer those limits down by 50 hours). And if you're senior, you can minimize the trips you *have* to fly, or specify that you only want to fly the most efficient (for you), etc. When you're senior, you can play the "may pay for min work" game-- which means the airline needs more pilots.
All in all, there are a lot of reasons. Is there a pilot shortage? Well, yes. What's the fix? I don't know-- that's why airlines are trying to be creative. A lot of them are also starting up their own aviation academy's-- you go in, get trained, go directly to the Regionals for a couple years, then end up at a Major. I just flew with an FO who turned 26 on his first trip-- wow! He's going to have one hell of a career...... IF things don't collapse.
Remember that in the airlines, furloughs are a thing (think unemployment, but with a more polite name). First hired, last fired is a thing. You could be hired next week, make it through training, get checked out in the jet.... and something like Covid or 9-11 happens, and you're on the street with tens of thousands of other pilots.
Best quote I've ever heard? "It's a GREAT job, but a TERRIBLE career!"
There's a lot of truth to that.
R.
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