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Originally Posted by Viffermike
A couple of anomalies in the stats and definitions:
- I would consider 'crossovers' and small SUVs as passenger cars, even though the government and industry do not. Furthermore, what these entities call 'light trucks' are often considered cars by most of the populace. Examples: the VW Golf and the Subaru Forester/Outback. The flip side of that is that some companies consider small SUVs as passenger cars, like BMW does with the X1.
- The passenger car won't disappear anytime soon. In fact, it will almost certainly enjoy a resurgence as alternative-fuel vehicles take hold, fuel prices climb upward (and they will), and 'self-driving' technology becomes mass viable and marketable. Exactly this happened during the recession and the near-$5-per-gallon fuel prices we in the U.S. dealt with at the beginning of the decade. Though the viability of larger alternative-fuel vehicles is growing, there are simply some types of consumer passenger vehicles that won't lend themselves to the alternative-fuel 'treatment' -- large pickups, for instance -- for quite a while, both economically and technologically.
There's no denying that in the U.S., truck-like vehicles are selling better. But it will be a somewhat temporary trend that fewer and fewer vehicle manufacturers will play in as the industry becomes more globalized, within which the U.S. market will become less and less important.
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I agree with most of what you wrote except I see self driving technology being less of a reason for many to drive cars and instead move toward crossovers. I find the car more fun to drive and perform better (same price point and engine). Assuming the self driving car will drive like my grandmother I see less of a reason to care about how it performs and adequate acceleration and handling will be all the car will ever actually do.
Gas prices will hurt crossovers some but the true dollar amount won't significantly change what the BMW buyer pays.
The difference in fuel costs between a X3 sDrive 28i and a 328i XDrive is about $100 a year. Gas doubles and this goes to $200 a year and 5 years of ownership cost an extra $1000 in gas.
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find....36139&id=36650
Or the Cadillac XT5 and the ATS both with the same V-6 and the difference today is $100 a year.
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find....37271&id=37766
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Based on 45% highway, 55% city driving, 15,000 annual miles and current fuel prices.
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